Who Started the 50% Divorce Rate Myth?

No, not 50%

50% of all marriages end in divorce. 10% of them divorce twice. But, many divorced people are divorced more than 3 times.

Now, this number is an 'urban legend.' The rate of divorce has NEVER been 50%

The highest rate of divorce is the USA was 44% (including those who divorce mulitple times) The marriage rate in 2005 was 7.5 (per 1,000), down from 7.8 the previous year. This is FAR lower than 50% or even the 44% that some statistics claim. Shockingly, only 10% of the US population is currently divorced.


Divorce in Canada is actually on the decline. Currently, only 37% of divorces are expected to end before they reach their 30th anniversary.


US Per capita divorce rates 1990-2002:
1991, 0.47%
1992, 0.48%
1993, 0.46%
1994, 0.46%
1995, 0.46%
1995, 0.43%
1997, 0.43%,
1998, 0.42%,
1999, 0.41%,
2000, 0.41%,
2001, 0.40%,
2002, 0.38%
(Mostly from NCHS, some from Census Bureau's Statistical Abstract of the U.S.,

That is a lot less than 50% - interestingly, the % is dropping.

So, where does the urban myth start? It starts from quotes like the following (the important thing to understand is the true definition of the word PROJECTION - it is a guess - it is not fact):

"About 50% of first marriages for men under age 45 may end in divorce, and between 44 and 52% of women's first marriages may end in divorce for these age groups. The likelihood of a divorce is lowest for men and women age 60, for whom 36 % of men and 32 percent of women may divorce from their first marriage by the end of their lives. A
similar statistical exercise was performed in 1975 using marital history data from the Current Population Survey
(CPS). Projections based on those data implied that about one-third of married persons who were 25 to 35 years old in 1975 would end their first marriage in divorce.

"This cohort of people, who in 1996 were about 45 to 55 years old, had already exceeded these projections as about 40% of men and women in these ages had divorced from their first marriage. Current projections now indicate that the proportion could be as high as 50% for persons now in their early forties."

Rose M. Kreider and Jason M. Fields, "Number, Timing, and Duration of Marriages and Divorces: 1996", U.S. Census Bureau Current Population Reports, February 2002, p. 18.

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It is also important to understand the source the information comes from.

Southern Baptist Convention's Council on the Family said that for "...born-again Christian couples who marry...in the church after having received premarital counseling...and attend church regularly and pray daily together..." experience only 1 divorce out of nearly 39,000 marriages

Barna Research Group released the results of their poll about divorce on 1999-DEC-21

11% of the adult population is currently divorced.
25% of adults have had at least one divorce during their lifetime.
34% of adults with no church affiliation are divorced.

These numbers were found using a test group of 3500 people.

The State of our Unions 2005 annual report, which analyzes Census and other data, is issued by the National Marriage Project at New Jersey's Rutgers University.

The U.S. divorce rate is 17.7 per 1,000 married women, down 22.6 in 1980. The marriage rate is on a steady decline: a 50% drop since 1970 from 76.5 per 1,000 unmarried women to 39.9, says the report, whose calculations are based on an internationally used measurement.

The USA has the lowest percentage among Western nations of children who grow up with both biological parents, 63%, the report says. (That means that only 37% are in single parent homes)